A 100% PANCE Pass Rate: 100% of Whom?
A program reports a 100% first-time PANCE pass rate. That is good news about the graduates included in the calculation. It does not, by itself, tell you how many students entered, graduated on time or had taken the exam when the report was produced.
Before comparing programs, read the denominator: who was counted, during which period and at what point in their training? Three accurate percentages can describe three different groups.
Start with the report labels
NCCPA’s national five-year report separates first-time test takers from total examinations administered. The latter can include more than one attempt by the same person. Those totals answer different questions and should not share an unlabeled comparison column.
For program-level research, locate the official PANCE report and the graduation or attrition table. The University of Tampa’s outcomes page provides an example of presenting these resources together. Use the reports for the program you are considering, including their definitions and dates; the example is a document-finding model, not an endorsement or ranking.
Save the reporting date as well as the graduation year. A recently graduated class may still have members who have not tested. A partial report and a later complete report can differ without either being wrong.
Follow one fictional cohort
The following numbers are invented to demonstrate the arithmetic. They do not describe any real school. Suppose 40 students enter a program. At the planned graduation date, 36 have graduated, two remain enrolled on a longer timeline and two have permanently left. By the PANCE report date, 34 of the graduates have taken their first attempt and all 34 have passed.
| Question | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| How many entered? | Starting cohort | 40 students |
| How many graduated on schedule? | 36 ÷ 40 | 90% |
| How many permanently left? | 2 ÷ 40 | 5% in this example |
| How many remain enrolled? | 2 ÷ 40 | 5% |
| How many first-time test takers passed? | 34 ÷ 34 | 100% |
| How many original entrants have passed by this date? | 34 ÷ 40 | 85% |
All of those statements can be true at once. The 85% figure is a snapshot created for this matched fictional cohort. It is not the program’s official PANCE pass rate, an ultimate completion rate or a prediction that a new student has an 85% chance of success.
The two students still enrolled are not automatically departures. The two graduates who have not tested are not exam failures. If either group’s status changes later, the snapshot changes. Read the actual program’s definitions before deciding which category belongs in an attrition calculation.
Do not combine unmatched years
It can be tempting to multiply a published graduation rate by a PANCE pass rate and call the result a success rate. That only makes sense under carefully matched definitions and populations. A graduation table organized by entering cohort and an exam table organized by testing year may not describe the same people.
Keep each source’s labels intact. If you cannot establish the connection, report the figures separately and write down the missing relationship. A transparent comparison with one unresolved field is more useful than a precise-looking composite built from incompatible data.
Likewise, “eventual pass rate” and “first-time pass rate” are different measures. If a school publishes both, retain both labels. Do not replace the first-attempt result with a later result simply because the later percentage is larger.
Put percentages back into people
Small cohorts can produce visible swings. One additional non-passing result among 25 first-time test takers changes the rate by four percentage points; among 100, it changes the rate by one point. That arithmetic does not explain why the result occurred, but it helps you avoid treating every change as equally large evidence of a trend.
Look across several cohorts while preserving each year’s denominator. Do not take the simple average of percentages from unequal groups and label it a combined student pass rate. For example, 24 of 25 passing and 90 of 100 passing combine to 114 of 125, or 91.2%, rather than the 93% average of 96% and 90%.
Turn the comparison into better questions
Ask how the program identifies academic difficulty, what remediation involves, whether deceleration is available and how additional time affects costs. Ask when the outcome reports were last updated and whether the latest cohort is complete. These questions connect the numbers with the experience you might have as a student.
If attrition changes substantially, ask the program to explain the aggregate pattern and its response. Public data may not establish the reasons for individual departures, and applicants should not seek private student records. An unexplained number is a question to investigate, not permission to invent a cause.
A compact outcomes worksheet
For each program, record the cohort label, entering number, graduates, students still enrolled, attrition definition, first-time test takers, first-time pass rate and report date. Add a source link for each report and leave unavailable values explicitly blank or marked “not published.”
Use the worksheet alongside accreditation, costs and program fit. Outcomes describe previous groups under particular circumstances. They can improve your questions and your comparison, but they cannot convert your GPA, experience or motivation into a reliable individual admission or graduation probability.
Research checked October 27, 2026. Follow the linked official policy for your entering class; program rules and reporting dates can change.